Projections of GHG emissions reduction up to 2050 were prepared for Slovenia within the LIFE ClimatePath2050 project. Different complex factors influencing future GHG emissions were systematically analysed and aggregated in transparent scenarios.
Projections and scenario analysis are key planning tools enabling participating stakeholders to make informed decisions. Scenario analysis provides insight into the impacts of different decisions on future developments. In the analysis, we evaluated the present status (e.g. regarding the energy performance of buildings), potential GHG emissions reduction measures (e.g. deep building renovation, switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy), the developed achievable or feasible scenarios (e.g. the area of buildings renovated yearly), and the assessed future impacts of scenarios: GHG emissions reduction, energy balances, air pollution emissions (NOx, SO2, NMVOC, PM10), required investments, energy costs savings, etc. The scenario analysis included buildings and the transport, industry, energy supply, agriculture, LULUF, and waste sectors. Emissions and energy projections have been prepared for the period up to 2050 and detailed financial flow projections up to 2030.
The projections prepared in the LIFE ClimatePath2050 project are primarily aimed at supporting decision–making as regards long-term GHG emissions targets and the basic orientation of the climate policy of Slovenia and form the background of key official documents. The results have been used as the analytical background for the preparation of The Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Slovenia, adopted by the Government of the Republic of Slovenia in February 2020, and The Long-term Climate Strategy up to 2050 of Slovenia, adopted by the National Assembly in July 2021. Furthermore, the projections have been used for sectoral documents, inter alia, the Long-term Strategy for the Energy Renovation of Buildings up to 2050, which has already been adopted, and the National Air Pollution Control Programme, which is still in preparation.
The results of the analysis are summarised in the report Deliverable 3.2: Summary of the scenario analysis for policymakers. Various emissions reduction scenarios leading to climate neutrality have been assessed and compared with less ambitious emissions reduction scenarios. There are multiple scenarios leading to climate neutrality, and they are comparable as regards the other impacts: environmental, sectoral, and macroeconomic. But it is far too early to pick one scenario as the preferred one due to major uncertainties as regards future developments (technological, the responses of actors, etc.). To stress again, the primary aim is to support policymakers in choosing the level of ambition as regards the mid-century emissions reduction targets. The key results are the following:
It is possible to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 in such a way that other general and sectoral development criteria, such as supply security, competitiveness, and food security, are taken into account.
The analysis of scenarios was carried out in several stages in order to enable interaction with decision-makers and all interested stakeholders. For this reason, a series of sectoral and plenary events were organized to enable the discussion of key assumptions, dilemmas, and results.
Several supporting analyses were prepared and are documented in the reports and in scientific, professional, and popular articles. For more information, please visit our Library.